NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Fri Aug 28 1:04 am
000
AXNT20 KNHC 280504
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 13.8N 42.3W at 28/0300 UTC
or 1140 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 20 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 12
ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
within 90 NM of the center in the northern semicircle. A fast
westward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, this system should be nearing the
Leeward Islands this weekend. Little change in strength is likely
during the next 48 hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into
a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Heavy rain
from Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into
Sunday, with rainfall moving into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce
flash flooding within areas of higher terrain of the Leeward
Islands. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Dolly
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will
support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to
locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through
early next week. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off
Colombia. The ASCAT scatterometer passes around 0130 UTC showed
peak winds of near gale at 12N75W. Please refer to the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 25W, south of
20N over the Cabo Verde Islands while moving westward at about 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-13N between
24W-29W.
A new tropical wave was introduced in Atlantic approaching the
Lesser Antilles along 57W south of 20N. It is likely moving
westward around 15 kt. No deep convection is noted in association
with this system.
A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 71W, south of
19N from Hispaniola to Venezuela. It is quickly moving westward
at around 20 kt. No significant convection is observed with this
wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough exits West Africa from the Senegal coast near
14N17W and extends southwestward to 10N24W. The ITCZ starts at
09N36W to 07N58W along the coast of Guyana. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N-13N between 24W-29W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak 1015 mb high is centered over the central Gulf near 25N89W.
Winds across the Gulf are moderate or weaker with seas 1-3 ft.
Isolated moderate convection is noted north of 24N east of 90W.
For the forecast, weak high pressure
AXNT20 KNHC 280504
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 13.8N 42.3W at 28/0300 UTC
or 1140 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 20 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 12
ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
within 90 NM of the center in the northern semicircle. A fast
westward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, this system should be nearing the
Leeward Islands this weekend. Little change in strength is likely
during the next 48 hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into
a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Heavy rain
from Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into
Sunday, with rainfall moving into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce
flash flooding within areas of higher terrain of the Leeward
Islands. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Dolly
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will
support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to
locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through
early next week. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off
Colombia. The ASCAT scatterometer passes around 0130 UTC showed
peak winds of near gale at 12N75W. Please refer to the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 25W, south of
20N over the Cabo Verde Islands while moving westward at about 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-13N between
24W-29W.
A new tropical wave was introduced in Atlantic approaching the
Lesser Antilles along 57W south of 20N. It is likely moving
westward around 15 kt. No deep convection is noted in association
with this system.
A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 71W, south of
19N from Hispaniola to Venezuela. It is quickly moving westward
at around 20 kt. No significant convection is observed with this
wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough exits West Africa from the Senegal coast near
14N17W and extends southwestward to 10N24W. The ITCZ starts at
09N36W to 07N58W along the coast of Guyana. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N-13N between 24W-29W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak 1015 mb high is centered over the central Gulf near 25N89W.
Winds across the Gulf are moderate or weaker with seas 1-3 ft.
Isolated moderate convection is noted north of 24N east of 90W.
For the forecast, weak high pressure