NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Thu Jan 15 11:08 pm
000
AXNT20 KNHC 160408
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jan 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 996 mb low
pressure located near 35N70W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed winds to gale
force both ahead of and following the front north of 28N,
embedded in an area of strong to near-gale force conditions north
of 25N and west of 65W. The front will reach from near Bermuda to
the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning
where it will stall and weaken. Winds will diminish below gale
force accordingly through early Fri. Elsewhere, widespread fresh
to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Rough to
very rough seas are also expected ahead and behind the front
through Fri. Another cold front may impact the basin late in the
upcoming weekend.
Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends 09N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N17W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N to 04N between 10W and 15W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
1022 mb high pressure is centered over the western Gulf near
24N96W, following a cold front that is now moving through the
northwest Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicated fresh to strong NW to N winds across the far eastern
Gulf and Straits of Florida. Moderate N winds extend across the
central and southwest Gulf, and light to gentle breezes are noted
elsewhere over the west-central and northwest Gulf. Rough seas in
the form of northerly swell with 8 to 11 ft wave heights are
noted across much of the southern Gulf, with 5 to 7 ft seas
elsewhere except 1 to 3 ft near the northern Gulf coast.
For the forecast, marine conditions will improve from NW to SE
tonight. A reinforcing front will bring a surge of fresh to near-
gale northerly winds and rough to locally very rough seas over the
basin this weekend. Gales are possible off Tampico, Mexico
Sunday. Conditions will improve markedly on Mon. However, the
pressure gradient will tighten again Tue into Wed, resulting in
fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across much of
the basin.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front extends from central Cuba across the northwest
Caribbean into central Belize and northern Guatemala. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong N winds
following the front over the northwest Gulf and Yucatan Channel. A
plume of rough seas follows the front as well through the Yucatan
Channel, with buoy 42056 in the northwest Caribbean reporting wave
heights to near 8 ft. Farther east, the subtropical ridge extends
from the western Atlantic to north of Hispaniola. There is enough
of a gradient south of the ridge to support fresh to locally
strong trade winds across the southern Caribbean south of 15N.
Wave
AXNT20 KNHC 160408
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jan 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 996 mb low
pressure located near 35N70W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed winds to gale
force both ahead of and following the front north of 28N,
embedded in an area of strong to near-gale force conditions north
of 25N and west of 65W. The front will reach from near Bermuda to
the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning
where it will stall and weaken. Winds will diminish below gale
force accordingly through early Fri. Elsewhere, widespread fresh
to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Rough to
very rough seas are also expected ahead and behind the front
through Fri. Another cold front may impact the basin late in the
upcoming weekend.
Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends 09N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N17W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N to 04N between 10W and 15W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
1022 mb high pressure is centered over the western Gulf near
24N96W, following a cold front that is now moving through the
northwest Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicated fresh to strong NW to N winds across the far eastern
Gulf and Straits of Florida. Moderate N winds extend across the
central and southwest Gulf, and light to gentle breezes are noted
elsewhere over the west-central and northwest Gulf. Rough seas in
the form of northerly swell with 8 to 11 ft wave heights are
noted across much of the southern Gulf, with 5 to 7 ft seas
elsewhere except 1 to 3 ft near the northern Gulf coast.
For the forecast, marine conditions will improve from NW to SE
tonight. A reinforcing front will bring a surge of fresh to near-
gale northerly winds and rough to locally very rough seas over the
basin this weekend. Gales are possible off Tampico, Mexico
Sunday. Conditions will improve markedly on Mon. However, the
pressure gradient will tighten again Tue into Wed, resulting in
fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across much of
the basin.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front extends from central Cuba across the northwest
Caribbean into central Belize and northern Guatemala. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong N winds
following the front over the northwest Gulf and Yucatan Channel. A
plume of rough seas follows the front as well through the Yucatan
Channel, with buoy 42056 in the northwest Caribbean reporting wave
heights to near 8 ft. Farther east, the subtropical ridge extends
from the western Atlantic to north of Hispaniola. There is enough
of a gradient south of the ridge to support fresh to locally
strong trade winds across the southern Caribbean south of 15N.
Wave