NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
Tue Oct 13 5:43 pm
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132143
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Simon is centered near 20.2N 107.5W at 2100 UTC,
moving west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is within 30 nm of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate
and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18.5N to 21N
between 106.59W and 109W. Simon is very small and located in an
area of weak steering currents. Simon is expected to move S to SW
during the next 24-36 hours, and then after 48 hours, begin a
northward motion. Simon could approach the coast of western
Mexico this weekend. Interests in west-central Mexico and Baja
California Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest
updates to Simon's forecast. Changes to watches and warnings
could be required tonight or Wed based on the latest forecast
trends. Associated heavy rainfall will produce life- threatening
flooding and mudslides or worsen any on- going flooding,
especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon
will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-
central Mexico during the next few days, as well as the southern
Gulf of California. These swells are likely to cause large and
powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E has strengthened to Tropical
Storm Trudy. At 2100 UTC Trudy was located near 10.6N 96.5W,
moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt,
occurring only in the NE Quadrant. Peak seas are estimated at 13
ft across the N semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate to
strong convection is occurring from 09N to 14.5N between 92W and
100W. A west- northwestward to northwestward motion should
continue over the next 36 hours, then a decrease in forward speed
and turn toward the north-northwest is expected after 48 hours.
Extremely favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions are
forecast for at least the next 3 to 4 days, and steady to rapid
strengthening is forecast, with a major hurricane possible by
Sat. Trudy could potentially be very close to the coast of
southwestern and west-central Mexico as a major hurricane late
this week and over the weekend.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Simon and T.D. Twenty-One-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 13N77W to 09N83W to 10.5N90W,
then resumes from near 07.5N100W to 05N107W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N107W to 04N122W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 09N E of 86W,
and from 06N to 08N between 92W and 99W. Scattered moderate
AXPZ20 KNHC 132143
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Simon is centered near 20.2N 107.5W at 2100 UTC,
moving west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is within 30 nm of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate
and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18.5N to 21N
between 106.59W and 109W. Simon is very small and located in an
area of weak steering currents. Simon is expected to move S to SW
during the next 24-36 hours, and then after 48 hours, begin a
northward motion. Simon could approach the coast of western
Mexico this weekend. Interests in west-central Mexico and Baja
California Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest
updates to Simon's forecast. Changes to watches and warnings
could be required tonight or Wed based on the latest forecast
trends. Associated heavy rainfall will produce life- threatening
flooding and mudslides or worsen any on- going flooding,
especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon
will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-
central Mexico during the next few days, as well as the southern
Gulf of California. These swells are likely to cause large and
powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E has strengthened to Tropical
Storm Trudy. At 2100 UTC Trudy was located near 10.6N 96.5W,
moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt,
occurring only in the NE Quadrant. Peak seas are estimated at 13
ft across the N semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate to
strong convection is occurring from 09N to 14.5N between 92W and
100W. A west- northwestward to northwestward motion should
continue over the next 36 hours, then a decrease in forward speed
and turn toward the north-northwest is expected after 48 hours.
Extremely favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions are
forecast for at least the next 3 to 4 days, and steady to rapid
strengthening is forecast, with a major hurricane possible by
Sat. Trudy could potentially be very close to the coast of
southwestern and west-central Mexico as a major hurricane late
this week and over the weekend.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Simon and T.D. Twenty-One-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 13N77W to 09N83W to 10.5N90W,
then resumes from near 07.5N100W to 05N107W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N107W to 04N122W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 09N E of 86W,
and from 06N to 08N between 92W and 99W. Scattered moderate